The Prediction Markets

Local Election Combo: Hsinchu City and Hsinchu County

Closes
Nov 29, 2026, in 23 days
Traded
$1K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Kao, Hsu 40.9%

Next is Kao, Cheng at 37.8%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Kao, Hsu 40.9%Kao, Cheng 37.8%Chuang, Cheng 17.3%Chuang, Hsu 4%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Kao, Hsu
40.9%
Polymarket 32%(40.9% fair)polled, 59s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kao, Hsu
Last price
32%
Fair, margin removed
40.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$455
Trade this on Polymarket
Kao, Cheng
37.8%
Polymarket 29.5%(37.7% fair)polled, 59s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kao, Cheng
Last price
29.5%
Fair, margin removed
37.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
Chuang, Cheng
17.3%
Polymarket 13.5%(17.3% fair)polled, 59s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chuang, Cheng
Last price
13.5%
Fair, margin removed
17.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$318
Trade this on Polymarket
Chuang, Hsu
4%
Polymarket 3.2%(4% fair)polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chuang, Hsu
Last price
3.2%
Fair, margin removed
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$441
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Kao, Hsu
  • Kao, Cheng
  • Chuang, Cheng

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 4 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Local Election Combo: Hsinchu City and Hsinchu County". Kao, Hsu leads at 40.9%. Next is Kao, Cheng at 37.8%. $1K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2026.

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve to the single listed outcome that matches both of the following: the winner of the Hsinchu City mayoral election and the winner of the Hsinchu County magistrate election. For full rules for the Hsinchu City mayoral election, click here: https://polymarket.com/event/hsinchu-city-mayor-election-winner-20260813135716400 For full rules for the Hsinchu County magistrate election, click here: https://polymarket.com/event/hsinchu-county-magistrate-election-winner-20260813135716300 Additional options may be added to this market between market creation and resolution. In the event that any constituent market resolves to "Other," this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve according to the sources named in the two markets linked above.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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Local Election Combo: Hsinchu City and Hsinchu County Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Markets