The Prediction Markets

Lockheed Martin F-35 deliveries in Q1 2027

Closes
Aug 20, 2027, in 10 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
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What the markets expect

Above 18 89%

Next is Above 30 at 65.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 18
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 18
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$494
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 30
65.5%
Kalshi 65.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 30
Last price
65.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 32
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 32
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 34
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 34
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$190
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 36
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 36
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$154
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 38
38.5%
Kalshi 38.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 38
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 40
30.5%
Kalshi 30.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 40
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 42
23.5%
Kalshi 23.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 42
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 44
16.5%
Kalshi 16.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 44
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 46
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 46
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 58
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 58
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 18
  • Above 30
  • Above 32

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Lockheed Martin F-35 deliveries in Q1 2027". Above 18 leads at 89%. Next is Above 30 at 65.5%. $1K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Aug 20, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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