The Prediction Markets

Los Angeles mayoral election: voter turnout

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
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What the markets expect

Above 1.1M 98%

Next is Above 900K at 95%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 1.1M
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.1M
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$349
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 900K
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 900K
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$123
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.0M
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.0M
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$239
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 950K
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 950K
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.05M
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.05M
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$126
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.25M
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.25M
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$210
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.15M
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.15M
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$43
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.2M
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.2M
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.4M
36.5%
Kalshi 36.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.4M
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.45M
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.45M
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$17
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.35M
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.35M
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.3M
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.3M
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$213
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: City of Los Angeles

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 1.1M
  • Above 900K
  • Above 1.0M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Los Angeles mayoral election: voter turnout". Above 1.1M leads at 98%. Next is Above 900K at 95%. $1K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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