The Prediction Markets

Louisiana Senate Election: Turnout

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 11 days
Traded
$24K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 1.15M 96%

Next is Above 1.22M at 78%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 1.15M
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.15M
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.22M
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.22M
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$403
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.29M
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.29M
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$740
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.36M
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.36M
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.43M
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.43M
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$116
Trade this on Kalshi
1.4M-1.5M
40.5%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.4M-1.5M
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 1.49M
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.49M
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$90
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.56M
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.56M
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$413
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.63M
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.63M
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
1.6M-1.7M
13.8%
Polymarket 13.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $633 (6.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.6M-1.7M
Last price
13.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15.8¢
Sell Yes
11.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$633 (6.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
1.5M-1.6M
12.3%
Polymarket 12.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $781 (7.81x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.5M-1.6M
Last price
12.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12.8¢
Sell Yes
11.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$781 (7.81x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 1.70M
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.70M
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
1.7M+
11.9%
Polymarket 11.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $725 (7.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.7M+
Last price
11.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13.8¢
Sell Yes
9.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$725 (7.25x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.1M
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $474 (4.74x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.1M
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21.1¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$474 (4.74x)
Volume
$865
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 1.77M
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.77M
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.84M
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.84M
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
1.2M-1.3M
5.3%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.2M-1.3M
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.1M-1.2M
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.1M-1.2M
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.3M-1.4M
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.3M-1.4M
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Louisiana Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 1.15M
  • Above 1.22M
  • Above 1.29M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 1.15M for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Louisiana Senate Election: Turnout". Above 1.15M leads at 96%. Next is Above 1.22M at 78%. $24K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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