The Prediction Markets

MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner

FinalKickoff
Traded
$44K
Venues
Polymarket
Share

This market has closed

Trading ended on Sep 15, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 126 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Dan Koh
63.3%
Polymarket 64%(63.3% fair)polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dan Koh
Last price
64%
Fair, margin removed
63.3%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tram Nguyen
23.2%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 25.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $391 (3.91x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tram Nguyen
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
25.6¢
Sell Yes
21.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$391 (3.91x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
John Beccia
5.7%
Polymarket 5.8%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 11.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $885 (8.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Beccia
Last price
5.8%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
11.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$885 (8.85x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Beth Andres-Beck
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Beth Andres-Beck
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kevin Larivee
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kevin Larivee
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mariah Lancaster
0.6%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mariah Lancaster
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rachel Creemers
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rachel Creemers
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jamie Zahlaway Belsito
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jamie Zahlaway Belsito
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Seth Moulton
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Seth Moulton
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rick Jakious
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rick Jakious
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Diann Slavit Baylis
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Diann Slavit Baylis
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dominick Pangallo
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3032 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dominick Pangallo
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Dan Koh
  • Tram Nguyen
  • John Beccia

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner". Dan Koh last traded at 63.3%. Next is Tram Nguyen at 23.2%. $44K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Sep 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 15, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets