The Prediction Markets

Maine Governor Republican Primary Winner

FinalKickoff
Traded
$34K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jun 9, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Robert Charles
50.9%
Polymarket 57%(50.9% fair)polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Charles
Last price
57%
Fair, margin removed
50.9%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jonathan Bush
19%
Polymarket 21.3%(19% fair)polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 22.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $444 (4.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jonathan Bush
Last price
21.3%
Fair, margin removed
19%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
22.5¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$444 (4.44x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Garrett Mason
12.5%
Polymarket 14%(12.5% fair)polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Garrett Mason
Last price
14%
Fair, margin removed
12.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ben Midgley
11.6%
Polymarket 13%(11.6% fair)polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ben Midgley
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
11.6%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ken Capron
2%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ken Capron
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Robert Wessels
1.6%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Wessels
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Owen McCarthy
1.1%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Owen McCarthy
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
David Jones
0.9%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Jones
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
James Libby
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3824 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Libby
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Robert Charles
  • Jonathan Bush
  • Garrett Mason

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Maine Governor Republican Primary Winner". Robert Charles last traded at 50.9%. Next is Jonathan Bush at 19%. $34K has traded across 9 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jun 9, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Maine, scheduled to take place on June 9, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Maine Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Maine Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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