The Prediction Markets

Maine Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$24K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

700K-750K 42.4%

Next is 650K-700K at 25.4%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

700K-750K 42.4%650K-700K 25.4%750K-800K 7.8%900K+ 7.3%600K 5.9%3 others 11.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
700K-750K
42.4%
Polymarket 46%(42.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
700K-750K
Last price
46%
Fair, margin removed
42.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
650K-700K
25.4%
Polymarket 27.6%(25.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 31.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $322 (3.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
650K-700K
Last price
27.6%
Fair, margin removed
25.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31.1¢
Sell Yes
24.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$322 (3.22x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
750K-800K
7.8%
Polymarket 8.5%(7.8% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
750K-800K
Last price
8.5%
Fair, margin removed
7.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
900K+
7.3%
Polymarket 8%(7.3% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 15.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $658 (6.58x)
Polymarket
Contract
900K+
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
7.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15.2¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$658 (6.58x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
600K
5.9%
Polymarket 6.4%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 11.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $893 (8.93x)
Polymarket
Contract
600K
Last price
6.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.2¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$893 (8.93x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
800K-850K
5.1%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
800K-850K
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
850K-900K
3.2%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
850K-900K
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
600K-650K
2.9%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
600K-650K
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 700K-750K
  • 650K-700K
  • 750K-800K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Maine Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)". 700K-750K leads at 42.4%. Next is 650K-700K at 25.4%. $24K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Maine. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Maine, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets