The Prediction Markets

Marco Rubio announces a presidential run by...?

Closes
Apr 1, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$9K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
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What the markets expect

Before Oct 1, 2027 55%

Next is Before Jun 1, 2027 at 34%. The venues differ most on June 30, 2027 (Polymarket 27%, Kalshi 48%), a 21-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Before Oct 1, 2027
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Oct 1, 2027
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$761
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jun 1, 2027
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jun 1, 2027
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Kalshi
June 30, 2027
32.3%
Polymarket 27%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 48%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
June 30, 2027
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jul 1, 2027
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$621
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Before May 1, 2027
19.5%
Kalshi 19.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before May 1, 2027
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Trade this on Kalshi
March 31, 2027
15.1%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 14%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
March 31, 2027
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Before Apr 1, 2027
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
8.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$824
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Before Jan 1, 2027
6.6%
Kalshi 6.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
6.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi

Venue prices are 3 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: 5 differences

Where they differ

  • Kalshi 'Before Apr 1, 2027' and Polymarket 'March 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET' line up; Kalshi 'Before Jul 1, 2027' vs Polymarket 'June 30, 2027' also line up. Other Kalshi dates (Jan, May, Jun, Oct) have no Polymarket counterpart and are not linked.
  • Kalshi requires a public campaign announcement by the person or official campaign and excludes exploratory committees and statements of interest; Polymarket requires an explicit, unambiguous announcement and excludes conditional/sarcastic statements. Wording differs but ordinary scenarios are the same.
  • Resolution source: Kalshi uses a 'Source Agency' (unspecified) while Polymarket uses Rubio's official statements, with credible reporting consensus as fallback. They could disagree on edge cases.
  • Kalshi text is truncated and does not state an explicit time zone for the cutoff; Polymarket specifies 11:59 PM ET. A small timing difference around midnight is possible.
  • Trading closes at different times: Apr 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 1, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi 'Before Apr 1, 2027' and Polymarket 'March 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET' line up; Kalshi 'Before Jul 1, 2027' vs Polymarket 'June 30, 2027' also line up. Other Kalshi dates (Jan, May, Jun, Oct) have no Polymarket counterpart and are not linked.
  • Kalshi requires a public campaign announcement by the person or official campaign and excludes exploratory committees and statements of interest; Polymarket requires an explicit, unambiguous announcement and excludes conditional/sarcastic statements. Wording differs but ordinary scenarios are the same.
  • Resolution source: Kalshi uses a 'Source Agency' (unspecified) while Polymarket uses Rubio's official statements, with credible reporting consensus as fallback. They could disagree on edge cases.
  • Kalshi text is truncated and does not state an explicit time zone for the cutoff; Polymarket specifies 11:59 PM ET. A small timing difference around midnight is possible.
  • Trading closes Apr 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 1, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before Oct 1, 2027
  • Before Jun 1, 2027
  • June 30, 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Before Oct 1, 2027 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Marco Rubio announces a presidential run by...?". Before Oct 1, 2027 leads at 55%. Next is Before Jun 1, 2027 at 34%. $9K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Marco Rubio officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by Marco Rubio will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Marco Rubio (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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