This market has closed
Trading ended on Oct 21, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
- Polymarket
No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:

- UMA optimistic oracle
About this market
Final prediction market prices for "Marseille public gathering ban effectively lifted by...?". $34K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Oct 21, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any full calendar day between the day of market creation and the specified date, inclusive (Marseille time), passes without any ban on public gatherings in effect in any part of the City of Marseille, France. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A calendar day passes without any ban on public gatherings in effect if, at no point between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM Marseille time on that day, a ban on public gatherings is in effect in any part of the City of Marseille. The City of Marseille refers to the municipality (commune) of Marseille, within its official municipal boundaries. A ban on public gatherings refers to a governmental order which generally prohibits gatherings or demonstrations in public spaces in the City of Marseille, or a defined area of it, during a specific timeframe or specific hours. A ban of any scope will count, whether citywide or limited to specific arrondissements, districts, or neighborhoods of the City of Marseille, and must be officially declared by the City of Marseille, the Bouches-du-Rhône Police Prefecture (Préfecture de police des Bouches-du-Rhône), or a French national authority. A broader ban (e.g. department-wide or nationwide) will count so long as it applies to at least part of the City of Marseille. Orders that prohibit or restrict only one or more specific, identified demonstrations, marches, or events (rather than gatherings or demonstrations generally) will not be considered bans on public gatherings for the purposes of this market, including where such an order applies across a defined area or the entire city. Unofficial guidance, voluntary advisories, and conditional or prospective statements that a ban may be imposed will not be considered bans on public gatherings for the purposes of this market. Closures of specific parks, facilities or venues, restrictions on business hours or sales, and transit suspensions will not be considered bans on public gatherings unless they also impose a ban as defined above. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government announcements; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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