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What the markets expect
Above 3.9950 50%
Next is Above 4.0000 at 31%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Above 3.995050%50%45¢ bid, 55¢ askpolled, just now55¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $182 (1.82x)Above 3.995050%Kalshi 50%polled, just nowBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Above 3.9950
50%
50%
45¢ bid, 55¢ ask
polled, just now
55¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Above 3.9950
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, just nowBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 3.9950
- Last price
- 50%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 55¢
- Sell Yes
- 45¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $182 (1.82x)
Above 4.000031%31%26¢ bid, 36¢ askpolled, just now36¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $278 (2.78x)Above 4.000031%Kalshi 31%polled, just nowBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Above 4.0000
31%
31%
26¢ bid, 36¢ ask
polled, just now
36¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Above 4.0000
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, just nowBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.0000
- Last price
- 31%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- 26¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
Above 4.005023%23%13¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, just now23¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $435 (4.35x)Above 4.005023%Kalshi 23%polled, just nowBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Above 4.0050
23%
23%
13¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, just now
23¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Above 4.0050
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, just nowBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.0050
- Last price
- 23%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
- Volume
- $76
Above 4.010010%10%5¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, just now10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Above 4.010010%Kalshi 10%polled, just nowBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Above 4.0100
10%
10%
5¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, just now
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Above 4.0100
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, just nowBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.0100
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $25
Above 4.02009%9%3¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, just now9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Above 4.02009%Kalshi 9%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Above 4.0200
9%
9%
3¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, just now
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Above 4.0200
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.0200
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $25
Above 4.01508%8%3¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, just now8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Above 4.01508%Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Above 4.0150
8%
8%
3¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, just now
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Above 4.0150
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.0150
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $31
Above 4.02507%7%3¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, just now7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Above 4.02507%Kalshi 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Above 4.0250
7%
7%
3¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, just now
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Above 4.0250
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.0250
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $210
Above 4.06504%4%1¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, just now7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Above 4.06504%Kalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Above 4.0650
4%
4%
1¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, just now
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Above 4.0650
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.0650
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
Above 4.03003%3%1¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, just now3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Above 4.03003%Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Above 4.0300
3%
3%
1¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, just now
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Above 4.0300
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.0300
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $10
Above 4.06002.5%2.5%1¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, just now4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Above 4.06002.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Above 4.0600
2.5%
2.5%
1¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, just now
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Above 4.0600
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.0600
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Show 7 more outcomesHide 7 outcomes
Above 4.03501.5%1.5%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, just now2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Above 4.03501.5%Kalshi 1.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Above 4.0350
1.5%
1.5%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, just now
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Above 4.0350
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.0350
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Above 4.04001.5%1.5%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, just now2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Above 4.04001.5%Kalshi 1.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Above 4.0400
1.5%
1.5%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, just now
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Above 4.0400
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.0400
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Above 4.05001.5%1.5%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, just now2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Above 4.05001.5%Kalshi 1.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Above 4.0500
1.5%
1.5%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, just now
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Above 4.0500
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.0500
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Above 4.04501%1%— bid, 9¢ askpolled, just now9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Above 4.04501%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Above 4.0450
1%
1%
— bid, 9¢ ask
polled, just now
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Above 4.0450
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.0450
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $5K
Above 4.05501%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, just now2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Above 4.05501%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Above 4.0550
1%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, just now
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Above 4.0550
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.0550
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Above 4.07001%1%— bid, 9¢ askpolled, just now9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Above 4.07001%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Above 4.0700
1%
1%
— bid, 9¢ ask
polled, just now
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Above 4.0700
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.0700
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $100
Above 4.07501%1%— bid, 9¢ askpolled, just now9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Above 4.07501%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Above 4.0750
1%
1%
— bid, 9¢ ask
polled, just now
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Above 4.0750
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.0750
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: AAA
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Above 3.9950
- Above 4.0000
- Above 4.0050
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Maryland gas prices tomorrow". Above 3.9950 leads at 50%. Next is Above 4.0000 at 31%. $6K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 24, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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