The Prediction Markets

Massachusetts Senate election: John Deaton vote percent

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$3K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
Share

Cite these odds

Free to quote with credit. Prices move, so keep the time.

Citation

Link to the live page
Image1200 × 675 card with the time printed on itDownload PNG

How to describe the numbers, and the reuse terms, are on the press page.

Embed this on your site

Free to use with the credit link. Prices refresh every minute.

Widget
Theme
Size

The script resizes the frame to fit; the iframe works without it.

Newsletters can’t run the live widget, so this is a picture of it with the time printed on it, linking to the live page.

What the markets expect

At least 30% 99%

Next is At least 26% at 93.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least 30%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 3 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
At least 30%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
74¢
Volume
$41
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 26%
93.5%
Kalshi 93.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 26%
Last price
93.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 40%
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 40%
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$951
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 28%
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 28%
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 32%
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 32%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$264
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 34%
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 34%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$404
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 36%
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 36%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$264
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 38%
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 38%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$735
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Elections Division, Office of the Secretary of the Commonwealth, Boston, MA

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 30%
  • At least 26%
  • At least 40%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Massachusetts Senate election: John Deaton vote percent". At least 30% leads at 99%. Next is At least 26% at 93.5%. $3K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets