The Prediction Markets

Massachusetts Senate Election: Turnout

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$12K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 2.00M 94.5%

Next is Above 2.20M at 88%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 2.00M
94.5%
Kalshi 94.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.00M
Last price
94.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.20M
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.20M
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.40M
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.40M
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$232
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.60M
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.60M
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$235
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.80M
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.80M
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$464
Trade this on Kalshi
2.8M-2.95M
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.8M-2.95M
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 3.00M
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.00M
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$147
Trade this on Kalshi
2.65M-2.8M
20%
Polymarket 20%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.65M-2.8M
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.5M-2.65M
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.5M-2.65M
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$563
Trade this on Polymarket
3.1M+
13.6%
Polymarket 13.6%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.1M+
Last price
13.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$756
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
2.95M-3.1M
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.95M-3.1M
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$749
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 3.40M
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.40M
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$109
Trade this on Kalshi
2.2M-2.35M
9.3%
Polymarket 9.3%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 10.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $917 (9.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.2M-2.35M
Last price
9.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.9¢
Sell Yes
7.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$917 (9.17x)
Volume
$517
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 3.20M
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.20M
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$279
Trade this on Kalshi
2.35M-2.5M
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.35M-2.5M
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.6¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,042 (10.4x)
Volume
$490
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 4.10M
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.10M
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.60M
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.60M
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.70M
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.70M
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.90M
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.90M
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
2.2M
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.2M
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$492
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 2.00M
  • Above 2.20M
  • Above 2.40M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 2.00M for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Massachusetts Senate Election: Turnout". Above 2.00M leads at 94.5%. Next is Above 2.20M at 88%. $12K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Massachusetts. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Massachusetts, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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