Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
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Best ask
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What the markets expect
DPP sweep 53.1%
Next is KMT sweep at 23.2%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
DPP sweep53.1%59.5%53.1% fair47¢ bid, 72¢ askpolled, 2 min ago72¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $139 (1.39x)DPP sweep53.1%Polymarket 59.5%(53.1% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
DPP sweep
53.1%
59.5%
53.1% fair
47¢ bid, 72¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
72¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $139 (1.39x)
DPP sweep
53.1%
Polymarket 59.5%(53.1% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- DPP sweep
- Last price
- 59.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 53.1%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 72¢
- Sell Yes
- 47¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $139 (1.39x)
- Volume
- $1K
KMT sweepPolymarket: “KMT New Taipei, DPP Kaohsiung”23.2%26%23.2% fair13¢ bid, 39¢ askpolled, 2 min ago39¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $256 (2.56x)KMT sweep23.2%Polymarket 26%(23.2% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
KMT sweep
Polymarket: “KMT New Taipei, DPP Kaohsiung”
23.2%
26%
23.2% fair
13¢ bid, 39¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
39¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $256 (2.56x)
KMT sweep
23.2%
Polymarket 26%(23.2% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- KMT New Taipei, DPP Kaohsiung
- Last price
- 26%
- Fair, margin removed
- 23.2%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 39¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $256 (2.56x)
- Volume
- $60
DPP sweepPolymarket: “DPP New Taipei, KMT Kaohsiung”13.4%15%13.4% fair5¢ bid, 25¢ askpolled, 2 min ago25¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $400 (4.00x)DPP sweep13.4%Polymarket 15%(13.4% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
DPP sweep
Polymarket: “DPP New Taipei, KMT Kaohsiung”
13.4%
15%
13.4% fair
5¢ bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
25¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
DPP sweep
13.4%
Polymarket 15%(13.4% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- DPP New Taipei, KMT Kaohsiung
- Last price
- 15%
- Fair, margin removed
- 13.4%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
- Volume
- $155
KMT sweep10.3%11.5%10.3% fair8¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 2 min ago15¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $667 (6.67x)KMT sweep10.3%Polymarket 11.5%(10.3% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
KMT sweep
10.3%
11.5%
10.3% fair
8¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
15¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
KMT sweep
10.3%
Polymarket 11.5%(10.3% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- KMT sweep
- Last price
- 11.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 10.3%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $123
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- DPP sweep
- KMT sweep
- DPP sweep
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
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Cover all 4 outcomes across venues
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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Mayor Combo: New Taipei and Kaohsiung". DPP sweep leads at 53.1%. Next is KMT sweep at 23.2%. $1K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the outcome of the New Taipei and Kaohsiung mayoral elections that are currently scheduled for November 28, 2026. A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “KMT” or “DPP” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. If the results of one of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other". For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins all races. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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