The Prediction Markets

Mayor Combo: Taipei and New Taipei

Closes
Nov 29, 2026, in 24 days
Traded
$2K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
3 h ago
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What the markets expect

KMT sweep 47.8%

Next is KMT sweep at 22%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

KMT sweep 47.8%KMT sweep 22%DPP sweep 18.7%DPP sweep 11.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
KMT sweep
47.8%
Polymarket 50%(47.8% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
KMT sweep
Last price
50%
Fair, margin removed
47.8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$855
Trade this on Polymarket
KMT sweep
22%
Polymarket 23%(22% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
KMT Taipei, DPP New Taipei
Last price
23%
Fair, margin removed
22%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$204
Trade this on Polymarket
DPP sweep
18.7%
Polymarket 19.5%(18.7% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
DPP sweep
Last price
19.5%
Fair, margin removed
18.7%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$804
Trade this on Polymarket
DPP sweep
11.5%
Polymarket 12%(11.5% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
DPP Taipei, KMT New Taipei
Last price
12%
Fair, margin removed
11.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$381
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • KMT sweep
  • KMT sweep
  • DPP sweep

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 4 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Mayor Combo: Taipei and New Taipei". KMT sweep leads at 47.8%. Next is KMT sweep at 22%. $2K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the outcome of the Taipei and New Taipei mayoral elections that are currently scheduled for November 28, 2026. A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “KMT” or “DPP” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. If the results of one of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other". For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins all races. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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