The Prediction Markets

Meander Valley Mayoral Election Winner

Closes
Oct 28, 2026, in 4 days
Traded
$27K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Stephanie Cameron 55.5%

Next is Dee Dee Cavanaugh at 39%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Stephanie Cameron
55.5%
Polymarket 55.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stephanie Cameron
Last price
55.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dee Dee Cavanaugh
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dee Dee Cavanaugh
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$900
Trade this on Kalshi
Kareem Jubran
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kareem Jubran
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$900
Trade this on Kalshi
Abby McKibben
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Abby McKibben
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mark Jessop
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Jessop
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$983
Trade this on Kalshi
Ben Dudman
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ben Dudman
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Paul Gibson
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paul Gibson
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$652
Trade this on Kalshi
Mike Judge
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Judge
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$900
Trade this on Kalshi
Wayne Hampton Holland III
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wayne Hampton Holland III
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$900
Trade this on Kalshi
Marshall Callaghan
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marshall Callaghan
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Robert Clarizio
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Robert Clarizio
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Wayne Johnston
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wayne Johnston
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$557
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: tec.tas.gov.au
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Tasmanian Electoral Commission, Ventura County Clerk-Recorder and Registrar of Voters

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Stephanie Cameron
  • Dee Dee Cavanaugh
  • Kareem Jubran

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Stephanie Cameron for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Meander Valley Mayoral Election Winner". Stephanie Cameron leads at 55.5%. Next is Dee Dee Cavanaugh at 39%. $27K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 28, 2026.

Local government elections are scheduled to be held across Tasmania on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the Meander Valley Council area as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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