The Prediction Markets

Melquizael Costa vs Jared Gordon: Method of Victory

Closes
Nov 28, 2026, in 16 days
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
7 min ago
Share

Cite these odds

Free to quote with credit. Prices move, so keep the time.

Citation

Link to the live page
Image1200 × 675 card with the time printed on itDownload PNG

How to describe the numbers, and the reuse terms, are on the press page.

Embed this on your site

Free to use with the credit link. Prices refresh every minute.

Widget
Theme
Size

The script resizes the frame to fit; the iframe works without it.

Newsletters can’t run the live widget, so this is a picture of it with the time printed on it, linking to the live page.

What the markets expect

Melquizael Costa by KO/TKO/DQ 42.4%

Next is Melquizael Costa by Decision at 22.8%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Melquizael Costa by KO/TKO/DQ 42.4%Melquizael Costa by Decision 22.8%Melquizael Costa by Submission 12%Jared Gordon by Decision 10.3%Jared Gordon by KO/TKO/DQ 8.7%2 others 3.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 7 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Melquizael Costa by KO/TKO/DQ
42.4%
Kalshi 39%(42.4% fair)polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Melquizael Costa by KO/TKO/DQ
Last price
39%
Fair, margin removed
42.4%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Melquizael Costa by Decision
22.8%
Kalshi 21%(22.8% fair)polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Melquizael Costa by Decision
Last price
21%
Fair, margin removed
22.8%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Melquizael Costa by Submission
12%
Kalshi 11%(12% fair)polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Melquizael Costa by Submission
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
12%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Jared Gordon by Decision
10.3%
Kalshi 9.5%(10.3% fair)polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jared Gordon by Decision
Last price
9.5%
Fair, margin removed
10.3%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jared Gordon by KO/TKO/DQ
8.7%
Kalshi 8%(8.7% fair)polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jared Gordon by KO/TKO/DQ
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
8.7%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$561
Trade this on Kalshi
Jared Gordon by Submission
2.2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jared Gordon by Submission
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$447
Trade this on Kalshi
Draw/No Contest
1.6%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Draw/No Contest
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Fox Sports, Paramount+

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Melquizael Costa by KO/TKO/DQ
  • Melquizael Costa by Decision
  • Melquizael Costa by Submission

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Melquizael Costa vs Jared Gordon: Method of Victory". Melquizael Costa by KO/TKO/DQ leads at 42.4%. Next is Melquizael Costa by Decision at 22.8%. $1K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 28, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More sports markets

See all sports markets