The Prediction Markets

Michigan Governor Republican Primary Winner

FinalKickoff
Traded
$42K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Aug 4, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 126 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
John James
58.9%
Polymarket 64%(59% fair)polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
John James
Last price
64%
Fair, margin removed
59%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mike Cox
19.6%
Polymarket 21.3%(19.6% fair)polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 34.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $293 (2.93x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mike Cox
Last price
21.3%
Fair, margin removed
19.6%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
34.1¢
Sell Yes
8.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$293 (2.93x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Perry Johnson
15.7%
Polymarket 17%(15.7% fair)polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Perry Johnson
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
15.7%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Karla Wagner
2.1%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Karla Wagner
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
3.7¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,703 (27.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Aric Nesbitt
1.3%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aric Nesbitt
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Anthony Hudson
0.7%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anthony Hudson
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Evan Space
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Evan Space
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ralph Rebandt
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ralph Rebandt
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tom Leonard
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Leonard
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
William Null
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
William Null
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Joyce Gipson
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joyce Gipson
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$982
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • John James
  • Mike Cox
  • Perry Johnson

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Michigan Governor Republican Primary Winner". John James last traded at 58.9%. Next is Mike Cox at 19.6%. $42K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Aug 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Michigan, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Michigan Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Michigan Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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