The Prediction Markets

Michoacán Governor Election Winner

Closes
Jun 7, 2027, in 8 months
Traded
$62K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Grecia Quiroz 48.2%

Next is Carlos Torres Piña at 37.9%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Grecia Quiroz 48.2%Carlos Torres Piña 37.9%Gladyz Butanda Macías 6.6%Alfonso Martínez Alcázar 3.2%Raúl Morón Orozco 2.3%11 others 1.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Grecia Quiroz
48.2%
Polymarket 45.7%(48.2% fair)polled, 51s agoBest Yes 58.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
Grecia Quiroz
Last price
45.7%
Fair, margin removed
48.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58.1¢
Sell Yes
33.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Carlos Torres Piña
37.9%
Polymarket 35.9%(37.9% fair)polled, 51s agoBest Yes 36.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $274 (2.74x)
Polymarket
Contract
Carlos Torres Piña
Last price
35.9%
Fair, margin removed
37.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36.5¢
Sell Yes
35.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$274 (2.74x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gladyz Butanda Macías
6.6%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gladyz Butanda Macías
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alfonso Martínez Alcázar
3.2%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alfonso Martínez Alcázar
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Raúl Morón Orozco
2.3%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raúl Morón Orozco
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Fabiola Alanís Sámano
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fabiola Alanís Sámano
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Carlos Herrera Tello
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Carlos Herrera Tello
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Marko Cortés Mendoza
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marko Cortés Mendoza
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$734
Trade this on Polymarket
Adriana Hernández Íñiguez
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Adriana Hernández Íñiguez
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$534
Trade this on Polymarket
Ana Lilia Guillén Quiroz
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ana Lilia Guillén Quiroz
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$491
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 12 more outcomes
Celeste Ascencio Ortega
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Celeste Ascencio Ortega
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$430
Trade this on Polymarket
Daniela de los Santos
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Daniela de los Santos
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$553
Trade this on Polymarket
Edna Martínez Nambo
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Edna Martínez Nambo
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$588
Trade this on Polymarket
Ernesto Núñez Aguilar
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ernesto Núñez Aguilar
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$447
Trade this on Polymarket
Esteban González Nava
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Esteban González Nava
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$517
Trade this on Polymarket
Gabriela Molina Aguilar
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gabriela Molina Aguilar
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$475
Trade this on Polymarket
Germán Martínez Cázares
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Germán Martínez Cázares
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$924
Trade this on Polymarket
Guillermo Valencia Reyes
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guillermo Valencia Reyes
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$746
Trade this on Polymarket
Leinad Abigail Rojas Elenes
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Leinad Abigail Rojas Elenes
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$643
Trade this on Polymarket
Netzahualcóyotl Alanís Luna
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Netzahualcóyotl Alanís Luna
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$562
Trade this on Polymarket
Netzahualcóyotl Alarcón Pedraza
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Netzahualcóyotl Alarcón Pedraza
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$505
Trade this on Polymarket
Víctor Manuel Manríquez
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Víctor Manuel Manríquez
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$506
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Grecia Quiroz
  • Carlos Torres Piña
  • Gladyz Butanda Macías

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Michoacán Governor Election Winner". Grecia Quiroz leads at 48.2%. Next is Carlos Torres Piña at 37.9%. $62K has traded across 22 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jun 7, 2027.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Michoacán on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Michoacán gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Michoacán and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Michoacán and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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