The Prediction Markets

Milton, ON Mayoral Election Winner

Closes
Oct 26, 2026, in 2 days
Traded
$31K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Gord Krantz 48.2%

Next is Sameera Ali at 19.6%. The venues differ most on Nadeem Akbar (Polymarket 2.4%, Kalshi 4%), a 1.7-point gap.

Gord Krantz 48.2%Sameera Ali 19.6%George Minakakis 18.2%Maliha K. Ahmed 3.3%Nadeem Akbar 3.3%6 others 7.4%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Gord Krantz
48.2%
Polymarket 51%(49.6% fair)polled, 54s agoKalshi 51%(47.3% fair)polled, 54s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gord Krantz
Last price
51%
Fair, margin removed
49.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gord Krantz
Last price
51%
Fair, margin removed
47.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$255
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 49¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 55¢.

Sameera Ali
19.6%
Polymarket 21%(20.4% fair)polled, 54s agoKalshi 20%(18.6% fair)polled, 54s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sameera Ali
Last price
21%
Fair, margin removed
20.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sameera Ali
Last price
20%
Fair, margin removed
18.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 20¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 21¢.

George Minakakis
18.2%
Polymarket 19%(18.5% fair)polled, 54s agoKalshi 20%(18.6% fair)polled, 54s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
George Minakakis
Last price
19%
Fair, margin removed
18.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$328
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
George Minakakis
Last price
20%
Fair, margin removed
18.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$204
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 15¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 22¢.

Maliha K. Ahmed
3.3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 54s agoKalshi 4%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Maliha K. Ahmed
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$630
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Maliha K. Ahmed
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4.7¢.

Nadeem Akbar
3.3%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 54s agoKalshi 4%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nadeem Akbar
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$199
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nadeem Akbar
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3.5¢.

Zainab Azim
2.9%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 54s agoKalshi 3.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zainab Azim
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$580
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Zainab Azim
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4.7¢.

Asif Khan
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 54s agoKalshi 2%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Asif Khan
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$537
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Asif Khan
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.9¢.

Che'z Amun
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chéz Amun
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Abdulkareem Akbik
0.8%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 54s agoKalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Abdulkareem Akbik
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$541
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Abdulkareem Akbik
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Arjun Joshi
0.7%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 54s agoKalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Arjun Joshi
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$331
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Arjun Joshi
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Che'z Amun
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Che'z Amun
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$634
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Town of Milton Clerk
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Gord Krantz
  • Sameera Ali
  • George Minakakis

Live prices for Gord Krantz

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Milton, ON Mayoral Election Winner". Gord Krantz leads at 48.2%. Next is Sameera Ali at 19.6%. $31K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

The 2026 Milton, Ontario mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Milton, Ontario as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Milton, Ontario.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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