The Prediction Markets

Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner

FinalKickoff
Traded
$419K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Aug 11, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 126 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Kendall Qualls
52.4%
Polymarket 52%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kendall Qualls
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$50K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lisa Demuth
27.2%
Polymarket 27%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lisa Demuth
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$64K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mike Lindell
17.6%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mike Lindell
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$100K
Trade this on Polymarket
Scott Jensen
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Scott Jensen
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$134K
Trade this on Polymarket
Patrick Knight
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Patrick Knight
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Brad Kohler
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brad Kohler
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kristin Robbins
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kristin Robbins
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Phil Parrish
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Phil Parrish
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jeff Johnson
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jeff Johnson
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Chris Madel
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chris Madel
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Kendall Qualls
  • Lisa Demuth
  • Mike Lindell

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner". Kendall Qualls last traded at 52.4%. Next is Lisa Demuth at 27.2%. $419K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Aug 11, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Minnesota, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Minnesota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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