The Prediction Markets

Minnesota Senate Election: Turnout

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$19K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 2.20M 95%

Next is Above 2.40M at 90%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 2.20M
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.20M
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.40M
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.40M
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.60M
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.60M
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.80M
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.80M
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$352
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.00M
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.00M
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$455
Trade this on Kalshi
2.75M-2.9M
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.75M-2.9M
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.9M-3.05M
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.9M-3.05M
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.05M+
22.3%
Polymarket 22.3%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 23.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $418 (4.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.05M+
Last price
22.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23.9¢
Sell Yes
20.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$418 (4.18x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 3.20M
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.20M
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
2.6M-2.75M
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.6M-2.75M
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Above 3.40M
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.40M
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.60M
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.60M
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
2.45M-2.6M
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.45M-2.6M
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$610
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 3.90M
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.90M
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.70M
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.70M
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
2M
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
2M
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$609
Trade this on Polymarket
2.15M-2.3M
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.15M-2.3M
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$569
Trade this on Polymarket
2.3M-2.45M
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.3M-2.45M
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$446
Trade this on Polymarket
2M-2.15M
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
2M-2.15M
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$519
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Minnesota Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 2.20M
  • Above 2.40M
  • Above 2.60M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 2.20M for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Minnesota Senate Election: Turnout". Above 2.20M leads at 95%. Next is Above 2.40M at 90%. $19K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Minnesota. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Minnesota, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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