The Prediction Markets

Mississippi Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$10K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

800K-900K 33.3%

Next is 700K-800K at 27.9%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

800K-900K 33.3%700K-800K 27.9%900K-1M 23.8%1M-1.1M 9.6%600K-700K 2.2%2 others 3.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
800K-900K
33.3%
Polymarket 34%(33.3% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
800K-900K
Last price
34%
Fair, margin removed
33.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
700K-800K
27.9%
Polymarket 28.5%(27.9% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
700K-800K
Last price
28.5%
Fair, margin removed
27.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
900K-1M
23.8%
Polymarket 24.4%(23.8% fair)polled, 43s agoBest Yes 25.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $394 (3.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
900K-1M
Last price
24.4%
Fair, margin removed
23.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25.4¢
Sell Yes
23.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$394 (3.94x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
1M-1.1M
9.6%
Polymarket 9.8%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 12.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $806 (8.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
1M-1.1M
Last price
9.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12.4¢
Sell Yes
7.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$806 (8.06x)
Volume
$642
Trade this on Polymarket
600K-700K
2.2%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
600K-700K
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$571
Trade this on Polymarket
1.1M+
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.1M+
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
600K
1.6%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
600K
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$449
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 800K-900K
  • 700K-800K
  • 900K-1M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Mississippi Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)". 800K-900K leads at 33.3%. Next is 700K-800K at 27.9%. $10K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Mississippi. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the first round of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Mississippi, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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