The Prediction Markets

Montana Senate General Election: voter turnout

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$24K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
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What the markets expect

Above 440K 92%

Next is Above 380K at 89%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 440K
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 3 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 440K
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
9¢
Volume
$542
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 380K
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 3 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 380K
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
78¢
Volume
$764
Trade this on Kalshi
450K-500K
65.3%
Polymarket 65.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
450K-500K
Last price
65.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
38.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
500K-550K
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
500K-550K
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 620K
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 620K
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$53
Trade this on Kalshi
550K-600K
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 22.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $437 (4.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
550K-600K
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
22.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$437 (4.37x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 470K
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 470K
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$338
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 560K
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 560K
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$296
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 590K
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 590K
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$152
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 650K
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 650K
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Above 680K
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 680K
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 710K
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 710K
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
400K-450K
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 10.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $962 (9.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
400K-450K
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
10.4¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$962 (9.62x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 500K
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 500K
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$988
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 530K
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 530K
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$115
Trade this on Kalshi
350K-400K
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
350K-400K
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
350K
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
350K
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$740
Trade this on Polymarket
600K+
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
600K+
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$922
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Montana Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 440K
  • Above 380K
  • 450K-500K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 440K for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Montana Senate General Election: voter turnout". Above 440K leads at 92%. Next is Above 380K at 89%. $24K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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