The Prediction Markets

MS-02 Republican Primary Winner

Closed
Mar 10, 2026
Traded
$51K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Mar 10, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 215 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Ron Eller
99.9%
Polymarket 100%polled, 5160 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Ron Eller
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 215 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kevin Wilson
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5160 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kevin Wilson
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 215 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ron Eller
  • Kevin Wilson

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "MS-02 Republican Primary Winner". Ron Eller last traded at 99.9%. Next is Kevin Wilson at 0.1%. $51K has traded across 2 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Mar 10, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MS-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 10, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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