The Prediction Markets

National Popular Vote Compact implemented before the 2028 election?

Closes
Nov 7, 2028, in 24 months
Traded
$13K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Arizona 54%

Next is Wisconsin at 53%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Arizona
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Arizona
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Wisconsin
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wisconsin
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Michigan
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michigan
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nevada
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nevada
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Yes
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pennsylvania
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pennsylvania
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$35
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: each state's official government websites, the Associated Press, Reuters

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Arizona
  • Wisconsin
  • Michigan

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Arizona for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "National Popular Vote Compact implemented before the 2028 election?". Arizona leads at 54%. Next is Wisconsin at 53%. $13K has traded across 6 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by November 6, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, the states and the District of Columbia that have enacted the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact into law collectively hold a majority of the electoral votes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will consider all jurisdictions that have concurrently enacted the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact into law, with the intent for it to be in effect for the 2028 presidential election. Electoral-vote totals are based on the apportionment of electors in effect on the resolution date. A jurisdiction that has repealed the compact or withdrawn from it, such that it is no longer a member, will not be counted. Injunctions or other legal action against the compact as a whole or any state's implementation of it will not be relevant for purposes of this market. The primary resolution source will be official state legislative records and the National Popular Vote organization's status page (https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/state-status); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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