The Prediction Markets

Nebraska Senate Election: Turnout

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$13K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 620K 90%

Next is Above 670K at 79%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 620K
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 620K
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 670K
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 670K
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 720K
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 720K
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 770K
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 770K
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$122
Trade this on Kalshi
700K-750K
36.5%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
700K-750K
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
750K-800K
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
750K-800K
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 820K
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 820K
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$280
Trade this on Kalshi
800K-850K
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
800K-850K
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 870K
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 870K
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$354
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 970K
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 970K
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$39
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Above 1.01M
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.01M
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$28
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.06M
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.06M
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$176
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 920K
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 920K
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$725
Trade this on Kalshi
650K-700K
6.3%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
650K-700K
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$716
Trade this on Polymarket
900K+
4.3%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
900K+
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
850K-900K
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
850K-900K
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$812
Trade this on Polymarket
650K
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
650K
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$654
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 1.10M
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.10M
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$79
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Nebraska Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 620K
  • Above 670K
  • Above 720K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 620K for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Nebraska Senate Election: Turnout". Above 620K leads at 90%. Next is Above 670K at 79%. $13K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Nebraska. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Nebraska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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