The Prediction Markets

New Hampshire Senate Election: Turnout

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$17K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 530K 89%

Next is Above 560K at 87%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 530K
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 530K
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 560K
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 560K
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$38
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 590K
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 590K
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$703
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 620K
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 620K
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$304
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 650K
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 650K
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$192
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 680K
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 680K
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$402
Trade this on Kalshi
650K-700K
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
650K-700K
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
700K-750K
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
700K-750K
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
600K-650K
25.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
600K-650K
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 710K
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 710K
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$685
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Above 740K
9.5%
Kalshi 9.5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 740K
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 770K
8.5%
Kalshi 8.5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 770K
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 800K
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 800K
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
500K
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
500K
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$975
Trade this on Polymarket
550K-600K
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
550K-600K
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
500K-550K
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
500K-550K
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
800K+
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
800K+
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
750K-800K
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
750K-800K
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$832
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: New Hampshire Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 530K
  • Above 560K
  • Above 590K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 530K for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New Hampshire Senate Election: Turnout". Above 530K leads at 89%. Next is Above 560K at 87%. $17K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Hampshire. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Hampshire, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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