The Prediction Markets

New Jersey Senate Election: Turnout

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$14K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 2.10M 95.5%

Next is Above 2.30M at 86%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 2.10M
95.5%
Kalshi 95.5%polled, 54s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.10M
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
91¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.30M
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.30M
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$111
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.50M
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.50M
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$201
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.70M
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.70M
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$550
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.90M
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.90M
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$380
Trade this on Kalshi
3M-3.2M
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
3M-3.2M
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 3.10M
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.10M
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$276
Trade this on Kalshi
3.2M-3.4M
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 26.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $372 (3.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.2M-3.4M
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26.9¢
Sell Yes
19.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$372 (3.72x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.4M
12.1%
Polymarket 12.1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 13.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $730 (7.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.4M
Last price
12.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.7¢
Sell Yes
10.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$730 (7.30x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 3.40M
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.40M
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$667
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 13 more outcomes
3.4M-3.6M
7.8%
Polymarket 7.8%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.4M-3.6M
Last price
7.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$328
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 3.80M
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.80M
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$223
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.60M
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.60M
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$149
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.80M
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.80M
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
2.6M-2.8M
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.6M-2.8M
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$590
Trade this on Polymarket
2.8M-3M
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.8M-3M
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$439
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 4.00M
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.00M
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
3.8M+
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.8M+
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$446
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 4.20M
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.20M
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.40M
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.40M
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.60M
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.60M
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
2.4M-2.6M
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.4M-2.6M
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$327
Trade this on Polymarket
3.6M-3.8M
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.6M-3.8M
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$309
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: New Jersey Division of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 2.10M
  • Above 2.30M
  • Above 2.50M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 2.10M for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New Jersey Senate Election: Turnout". Above 2.10M leads at 95.5%. Next is Above 2.30M at 86%. $14K has traded across 23 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Jersey. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Jersey, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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