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What the markets expect
Above 4.2300 92.5%
Next is Above 4.2350 at 87.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Above 4.230092.5%92.5%90¢ bid, 95¢ askpolled, 36s ago95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Above 4.230092.5%Kalshi 92.5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Above 4.2300
92.5%
92.5%
90¢ bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 36s ago
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Above 4.2300
92.5%
Kalshi 92.5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.2300
- Last price
- 92.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- 90¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
Above 4.235087.5%87.5%83¢ bid, 92¢ askpolled, 36s ago92¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $109 (1.09x)Above 4.235087.5%Kalshi 87.5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Above 4.2350
87.5%
87.5%
83¢ bid, 92¢ ask
polled, 36s ago
92¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Above 4.2350
87.5%
Kalshi 87.5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.2350
- Last price
- 87.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 92¢
- Sell Yes
- 83¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $109 (1.09x)
Above 4.240066%66%61¢ bid, 71¢ askpolled, 36s ago71¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $141 (1.41x)Above 4.240066%Kalshi 66%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Above 4.2400
66%
66%
61¢ bid, 71¢ ask
polled, 36s ago
71¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Above 4.2400
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.2400
- Last price
- 66%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 71¢
- Sell Yes
- 61¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $141 (1.41x)
Above 4.245028%28%23¢ bid, 33¢ askpolled, 36s ago33¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $303 (3.03x)Above 4.245028%Kalshi 28%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Above 4.2450
28%
28%
23¢ bid, 33¢ ask
polled, 36s ago
33¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Above 4.2450
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.2450
- Last price
- 28%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 33¢
- Sell Yes
- 23¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $303 (3.03x)
Above 4.250011.5%11.5%8¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 36s ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Above 4.250011.5%Kalshi 11.5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Above 4.2500
11.5%
11.5%
8¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 36s ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Above 4.2500
11.5%
Kalshi 11.5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.2500
- Last price
- 11.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
Above 4.25508.5%8.5%6¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 36s ago11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)Above 4.25508.5%Kalshi 8.5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Above 4.2550
8.5%
8.5%
6¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 36s ago
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Above 4.2550
8.5%
Kalshi 8.5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.2550
- Last price
- 8.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
Above 4.26506%6%2¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 36s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Above 4.26506%Kalshi 6%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Above 4.2650
6%
6%
2¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 36s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Above 4.2650
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.2650
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
Above 4.26006%6%3¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 36s ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Above 4.26006%Kalshi 6%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Above 4.2600
6%
6%
3¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 36s ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Above 4.2600
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.2600
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
Above 4.27004%4%2¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 36s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Above 4.27004%Kalshi 4%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Above 4.2700
4%
4%
2¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 36s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Above 4.2700
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.2700
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Above 4.27503%3%1¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 36s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Above 4.27503%Kalshi 3%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 4.2750
3%
3%
1¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 36s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 4.2750
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.2750
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Show 7 more outcomesHide 7 outcomes
Above 4.28002.5%2.5%1¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 36s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Above 4.28002.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Above 4.2800
2.5%
2.5%
1¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 36s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Above 4.2800
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.2800
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Above 4.28501%1%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 36s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Above 4.28501%Kalshi 1%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Above 4.2850
1%
1%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 36s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Above 4.2850
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.2850
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
Above 4.29001%1%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 36s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Above 4.29001%Kalshi 1%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Above 4.2900
1%
1%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 36s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Above 4.2900
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.2900
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Above 4.29501%1%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 36s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Above 4.29501%Kalshi 1%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 4.2950
1%
1%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 36s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 4.2950
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.2950
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $5K
Above 4.30001%1%— bid, 9¢ askpolled, 36s ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Above 4.30001%Kalshi 1%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Above 4.3000
1%
1%
— bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 36s ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Above 4.3000
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.3000
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $1K
Above 4.30501%1%— bid, 7¢ askpolled, 36s ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Above 4.30501%Kalshi 1%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Above 4.3050
1%
1%
— bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 36s ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Above 4.3050
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.3050
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $531
Above 4.31001%1%— bid, 9¢ askpolled, 36s ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Above 4.31001%Kalshi 1%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Above 4.3100
1%
1%
— bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 36s ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Above 4.3100
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.3100
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $2K
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: AAA
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Above 4.2300
- Above 4.2350
- Above 4.2400
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
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Buy
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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "New Mexico gas prices tomorrow". Above 4.2300 leads at 92.5%. Next is Above 4.2350 at 87.5%. $9K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 24, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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