The Prediction Markets

New York Governor Election: Turnout

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$16K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 4.9M 90%

Next is Above 5.2M at 82%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 4.9M
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.9M
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.2M
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.2M
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.5M
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.5M
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$452
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.8M
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.8M
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$970
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.1M
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.1M
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$310
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.4M
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.4M
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$78
Trade this on Kalshi
6M-6.5M
41.5%
Polymarket 41.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
6M-6.5M
Last price
41.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 6.6M
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.6M
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$395
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.9M
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.9M
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Trade this on Kalshi
6.5M-7M
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
6.5M-7M
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Above 7.2M
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.2M
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Trade this on Kalshi
5.5M-6M
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.5M-6M
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
7M+
12.7%
Polymarket 12.7%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 13.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $730 (7.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
7M+
Last price
12.7%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
13.7¢
Sell Yes
11.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$730 (7.30x)
Volume
$813
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 7.5M
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.5M
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
4.5M-5M
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.5M-5M
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
5M-5.5M
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
5M-5.5M
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$1000
Trade this on Polymarket
4.5M
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.5M
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: New York State Board of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 4.9M
  • Above 5.2M
  • Above 5.5M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 4.9M for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New York Governor Election: Turnout". Above 4.9M leads at 90%. Next is Above 5.2M at 82%. $16K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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