The Prediction Markets

New Zealand legislative election winner?

Starts in 16 daysKickoff
Traded
$103K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

National Party 55%

Next is National Party at 53%. The venues differ most on Te Pati Maori (Polymarket 0.2%, Kalshi 5%), a 4.9-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
National Party
55%
Polymarket 55%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
National Party
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$36K
Trade this on Polymarket
National Party
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
National
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Labour Party
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Labour
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Labour Party
44.5%
Polymarket 44.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Labour Party
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Polymarket
ACT New Zealand
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
ACT
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Opportunity
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Opportunity
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
New Zealand First Party
2.4%
Kalshi 2.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
NZ First
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Green Party
2.1%
Kalshi 2.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Green
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Te Pati Maori
1.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Te Pāti Māori
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Te Pāti Māori
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.2¢.

New Zealand First Party
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
New Zealand First Party
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
ACT New Zealand
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
ACT New Zealand
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Green Party
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Green Party
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 8, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: elections.nz
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the New Zealand Electoral Commission
Show full rule comparison
  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes Nov 8, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • National Party
  • National Party
  • Labour Party

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list National Party for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New Zealand legislative election winner?". National Party leads at 55%. Next is National Party at 53%. $103K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 8, 2026.

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid part list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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