The Prediction Markets

New Zealand rate decision in December

Closes
Dec 9, 2026, in 34 days
Traded
$65K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
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What the markets expect

25 bps increase 72.1%

Next is No change at 23%. The venues differ most on No change (Polymarket 21.5%, Kalshi 24%), a 2.5-point gap.

25 bps increase 72.1%No change 23%50+ bps increase 3.1%25 bps decrease 1.3%50+ bps decrease 0.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
25 bps increase
72.1%
Polymarket 69.5%(72.4% fair)polled, 3 h agoKalshi 69%(71.1% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
25 bps increase
Last price
69.5%
Fair, margin removed
72.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hike 1-25bps
Last price
69%
Fair, margin removed
71.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

No change
23%
Polymarket 21.5%(22.4% fair)polled, 3 h agoKalshi 24%(24.7% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
No change
Last price
21.5%
Fair, margin removed
22.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Maintain current rate
Last price
24%
Fair, margin removed
24.7%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$199
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

50+ bps increase
3.1%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
50+ bps increase
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hike more than 25bps
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$401
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

25 bps decrease
1.3%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
25 bps decrease
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cut 1-25bps
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

50+ bps decrease
0.5%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
50+ bps decrease
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cut more than 25bps
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Venue prices are 3 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: 5 differences

Where they differ

  • Kalshi has buckets 'Cut 1-25bps' and 'Hike 1-25bps' (any move up to 25bps); Polymarket rounds moves under 25bps to 25bps, which for a sub-25bp move is the same bucket. Kalshi 'more than 25bps' vs Polymarket '50+' with rounding: a move of 26-36bps would be Kalshi >25 but Polymarket rounds to 25, so they would pay differently. Realistically RBNZ moves in 25bp steps.
  • Cancelled/delayed meeting: Kalshi resolves Maintain if delayed past expiration date; Polymarket follows a postponed meeting if before the next scheduled meeting, else No change. Different delay handling.
  • Polymarket may resolve as soon as the statement is released; Kalshi resolves on the official announcement. Both use the official RBNZ decision. Polymarket lists the meeting date as Dec 9 (NZ time) while Kalshi says Dec 8 (US time), the same meeting.
  • Polymarket specifies the OCR and upper bound change; Kalshi says primary policy rate. Same rate for RBNZ.
  • Trading closes at different times: Dec 9, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 9, 2026, 1:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: rbnz.govt.nz
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Trading Economics
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi has buckets 'Cut 1-25bps' and 'Hike 1-25bps' (any move up to 25bps); Polymarket rounds moves under 25bps to 25bps, which for a sub-25bp move is the same bucket. Kalshi 'more than 25bps' vs Polymarket '50+' with rounding: a move of 26-36bps would be Kalshi >25 but Polymarket rounds to 25, so they would pay differently. Realistically RBNZ moves in 25bp steps.
  • Cancelled/delayed meeting: Kalshi resolves Maintain if delayed past expiration date; Polymarket follows a postponed meeting if before the next scheduled meeting, else No change. Different delay handling.
  • Polymarket may resolve as soon as the statement is released; Kalshi resolves on the official announcement. Both use the official RBNZ decision. Polymarket lists the meeting date as Dec 9 (NZ time) while Kalshi says Dec 8 (US time), the same meeting.
  • Polymarket specifies the OCR and upper bound change; Kalshi says primary policy rate. Same rate for RBNZ.
  • Trading closes Dec 9, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 9, 2026, 1:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 25 bps increase
  • No change
  • 50+ bps increase

Live prices for 25 bps increase

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New Zealand rate decision in December". 25 bps increase leads at 72.1%. Next is No change at 23%. $65K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 9, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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