The Prediction Markets

Next ECB President?

Closes
Feb 8, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$5K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 h ago
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What the markets expect

Klaas Knot 33.9%

Next is Pablo Hernández de Cos at 32.8%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Klaas Knot 33.9%Pablo Hernández de Cos 32.8%François Villeroy de Galhau 9.6%Fabio Panetta 9.2%Nadia Calviño 5.8%2 others 8.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Klaas Knot
33.9%
Polymarket 42.5%(34% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Klaas Knot
Last price
42.5%
Fair, margin removed
34%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pablo Hernández de Cos
32.8%
Polymarket 41%(32.8% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pablo Hernández de Cos
Last price
41%
Fair, margin removed
32.8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
François Villeroy de Galhau
9.6%
Polymarket 12%(9.6% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Villeroy de Galhau
Last price
12%
Fair, margin removed
9.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$558
Trade this on Polymarket
Fabio Panetta
9.2%
Polymarket 11.5%(9.2% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fabio Panetta
Last price
11.5%
Fair, margin removed
9.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$451
Trade this on Polymarket
Nadia Calviño
5.8%
Polymarket 7.3%(5.8% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 13.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $735 (7.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nadia Calviño
Last price
7.3%
Fair, margin removed
5.8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
13.6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$735 (7.35x)
Volume
$452
Trade this on Polymarket
Joachim Nagel
5.2%
Polymarket 6.5%(5.2% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joachim Nagel
Last price
6.5%
Fair, margin removed
5.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$618
Trade this on Polymarket
Olli Rehn
3.5%
Polymarket 4.4%(3.5% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Olli Rehn
Last price
4.4%
Fair, margin removed
3.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$325
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Klaas Knot
  • Pablo Hernández de Cos
  • François Villeroy de Galhau

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Next ECB President?". Klaas Knot leads at 33.9%. Next is Pablo Hernández de Cos at 32.8%. $5K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 8, 2027.

Christine Lagarde has announced that she will step down as President of the European Central Bank on February 7, 2027 (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.pr261029~abbb6dc64b.en.html). This market will resolve to the first individual who is formally appointed as President of the European Central Bank to succeed Christine Lagarde. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as President of the European Central Bank by the European Council. A recommendation by the Council of the European Union alone will not be sufficient for resolution. Any interim or acting President of the European Central Bank will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market will immediately resolve to the formally appointed individual regardless of whether that individual subsequently takes office or whether another individual holds the office after the appointment. If no such President is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Council and the European Central Bank; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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