The Prediction Markets

Next Mayor of Ekurhuleni (Germiston)?

Closes
Nov 5, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$46K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Khathutshelo Rasilingwane 30.5%

Next is Jongizizwe Dlabathi at 16.9%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Khathutshelo Rasilingwane 30.5%Jongizizwe Dlabathi 16.9%Thulani Shongwe 12.3%Nthabiseng Tshivenga 11.9%Xolani Khumalo 11.5%4 others 16.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Khathutshelo Rasilingwane
30.5%
Polymarket 24.9%(30.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Khathutshelo Rasilingwane
Last price
24.9%
Fair, margin removed
30.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
21.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jongizizwe Dlabathi
16.9%
Polymarket 13.8%(16.9% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $633 (6.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jongizizwe Dlabathi
Last price
13.8%
Fair, margin removed
16.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15.8¢
Sell Yes
11.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$633 (6.33x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Thulani Shongwe
12.3%
Polymarket 10.1%(12.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $532 (5.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thulani Shongwe
Last price
10.1%
Fair, margin removed
12.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18.8¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$532 (5.32x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nthabiseng Tshivenga
11.9%
Polymarket 9.8%(11.9% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nthabiseng Tshivenga
Last price
9.8%
Fair, margin removed
11.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Xolani Khumalo
11.5%
Polymarket 9.4%(11.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $806 (8.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Xolani Khumalo
Last price
9.4%
Fair, margin removed
11.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12.4¢
Sell Yes
6.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$806 (8.06x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nomadlozi Nkosi
6.1%
Polymarket 5%(6.1% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nomadlozi Nkosi
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
6.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$260
Trade this on Polymarket
Nkosindiphile Xhakaza
5.1%
Polymarket 4.2%(5.1% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nkosindiphile Xhakaza
Last price
4.2%
Fair, margin removed
5.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ntombi Mekgwe
5%
Polymarket 4.1%(5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ntombi Mekgwe
Last price
4.1%
Fair, margin removed
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pelisa Nkunjana
0.7%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pelisa Nkunjana
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$290
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: elections.org.za

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Khathutshelo Rasilingwane
  • Jongizizwe Dlabathi
  • Thulani Shongwe

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Next Mayor of Ekurhuleni (Germiston)?". Khathutshelo Rasilingwane leads at 30.5%. Next is Jongizizwe Dlabathi at 16.9%. $46K has traded across 9 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 5, 2026.

Municipal elections are currently scheduled to be held in South Africa on November 4, 2026. Ekurhuleni’s mayor will be elected by the newly constituted council at its inaugural meeting, which is expected to be held within 14 days of the municipal election, by November 18, 2026. This market will resolve to the first individual who officially assumes the role of Mayor of Ekurhuleni following the 2026 South African municipal elections. A qualifying individual must be elected mayor by the Ekurhuleni City Council. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of South Africa, including the Electoral Commission of South Africa (https://elections.org.za); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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