The Prediction Markets

Next Mayor of Mangaung (Bloemfontein)?

Closes
Nov 5, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$49K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Bongani Mathae 42.9%

Next is Vusimuzi Soqaga at 20.3%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Bongani Mathae 42.9%Vusimuzi Soqaga 20.3%Werner Pretorius 13.8%Lulaman Oditi-Titi 5.9%Gregory Nthatisi 4%5 others 13.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Bongani Mathae
42.9%
Polymarket 59.1%(42.9% fair)polled, 56s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bongani Mathae
Last price
59.1%
Fair, margin removed
42.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
39.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$311
Trade this on Polymarket
Vusimuzi Soqaga
20.3%
Polymarket 28%(20.3% fair)polled, 56s agoBest Yes 53.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $187 (1.87x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vusimuzi Soqaga
Last price
28%
Fair, margin removed
20.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53.5¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$187 (1.87x)
Volume
$180
Trade this on Polymarket
Werner Pretorius
13.8%
Polymarket 19%(13.8% fair)polled, 56s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Werner Pretorius
Last price
19%
Fair, margin removed
13.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lulaman Oditi-Titi
5.9%
Polymarket 8.1%(5.8% fair)polled, 56s agoBest Yes 8.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lulaman Oditi-Titi
Last price
8.1%
Fair, margin removed
5.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Volume
$173
Trade this on Polymarket
Gregory Nthatisi
4%
Polymarket 5.5%(4% fair)polled, 56s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gregory Nthatisi
Last price
5.5%
Fair, margin removed
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Polymarket
Motshewa Tladi
3.7%
Polymarket 5.1%(3.7% fair)polled, 56s agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Motshewa Tladi
Last price
5.1%
Fair, margin removed
3.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$84
Trade this on Polymarket
Sekhopi Malebo
2.9%
Polymarket 4.1%(2.9% fair)polled, 56s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sekhopi Malebo
Last price
4.1%
Fair, margin removed
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Thabo Manyoni
2.7%
Polymarket 3.7%(2.7% fair)polled, 56s agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thabo Manyoni
Last price
3.7%
Fair, margin removed
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$220
Trade this on Polymarket
Sam Matiase
2.5%
Polymarket 3.4%(2.5% fair)polled, 56s agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Matiase
Last price
3.4%
Fair, margin removed
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$800
Trade this on Polymarket
Theodorah Mosala-Leeuw
1.3%
Polymarket 1.9%(1.3% fair)polled, 56s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Theodorah Mosala-Leeuw
Last price
1.9%
Fair, margin removed
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$59
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: elections.org.za

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Bongani Mathae
  • Vusimuzi Soqaga
  • Werner Pretorius

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Next Mayor of Mangaung (Bloemfontein)?". Bongani Mathae leads at 42.9%. Next is Vusimuzi Soqaga at 20.3%. $49K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 5, 2026.

Municipal elections are currently scheduled to be held in South Africa on November 4, 2026. Mangaung’s mayor will be elected by the newly constituted council at its inaugural meeting, which is expected to be held within 14 days of the municipal election, by November 18, 2026. This market will resolve to the first individual who officially assumes the role of Mayor of Mangaung following the 2026 South African municipal elections. A qualifying individual must be elected mayor by the Mangaung Municipal Council. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of South Africa, including the Electoral Commission of South Africa (https://elections.org.za); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets