The Prediction Markets

Next Mayor of Nelson Mandela Bay (Port Elizabeth)?

Closes
Nov 5, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$34K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Babalwa Lobishe 42%

Next is Retief Odendaal at 27.1%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Babalwa Lobishe 42%Retief Odendaal 27.1%Andile Lungisa 13.5%Siva Pillay 5.7%Wandisile Jikeka 4.8%3 others 6.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Babalwa Lobishe
42%
Polymarket 35.6%(42% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
Babalwa Lobishe
Last price
35.6%
Fair, margin removed
42%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
31.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Retief Odendaal
27.1%
Polymarket 23%(27.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Retief Odendaal
Last price
23%
Fair, margin removed
27.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Andile Lungisa
13.5%
Polymarket 11.4%(13.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $676 (6.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andile Lungisa
Last price
11.4%
Fair, margin removed
13.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14.8¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$676 (6.76x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Siva Pillay
5.7%
Polymarket 4.8%(5.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Siva Pillay
Last price
4.8%
Fair, margin removed
5.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.5¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,176 (11.8x)
Volume
$585
Trade this on Polymarket
Wandisile Jikeka
4.8%
Polymarket 4.1%(4.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wandisile Jikeka
Last price
4.1%
Fair, margin removed
4.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$170
Trade this on Polymarket
Sinawo Thambo
4.4%
Polymarket 3.8%(4.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sinawo Thambo
Last price
3.8%
Fair, margin removed
4.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$236
Trade this on Polymarket
Xolani Vela
2.3%
Polymarket 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Xolani Vela
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bulelwa Mafaya
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bulelwa Mafaya
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ntombi Nama
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ntombi Nama
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: elections.org.za

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Babalwa Lobishe
  • Retief Odendaal
  • Andile Lungisa

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Next Mayor of Nelson Mandela Bay (Port Elizabeth)?". Babalwa Lobishe leads at 42%. Next is Retief Odendaal at 27.1%. $34K has traded across 9 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 5, 2026.

Municipal elections are currently scheduled to be held in South Africa on November 4, 2026. Nelson Mandela Bay’s mayor will be elected by the newly constituted council at its inaugural meeting, which is expected to be held within 14 days of the municipal election, by November 18, 2026. This market will resolve to the first individual who officially assumes the role of Mayor of Nelson Mandela Bay following the 2026 South African municipal elections. A qualifying individual must be elected mayor by the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipal Council. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of South Africa, including the Electoral Commission of South Africa (https://elections.org.za); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets