The Prediction Markets

Next Mayor of Tshwane (Pretoria)?

Closes
Nov 5, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$27K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Cilliers Brink 40.8%

Next is Nasiphi Moya at 23.3%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Cilliers Brink 40.8%Nasiphi Moya 23.3%Aaron Maluleka 14.3%Phumeza Mangcu 9.2%Chana Pilane-Majake 5.5%4 others 6.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Cilliers Brink
40.8%
Polymarket 50%(40.8% fair)polled, 40s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cilliers Brink
Last price
50%
Fair, margin removed
40.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nasiphi Moya
23.3%
Polymarket 28.5%(23.3% fair)polled, 40s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nasiphi Moya
Last price
28.5%
Fair, margin removed
23.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Aaron Maluleka
14.3%
Polymarket 17.6%(14.3% fair)polled, 40s agoBest Yes 25.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $395 (3.95x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aaron Maluleka
Last price
17.6%
Fair, margin removed
14.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25.3¢
Sell Yes
9.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$395 (3.95x)
Volume
$573
Trade this on Polymarket
Phumeza Mangcu
9.2%
Polymarket 11.3%(9.2% fair)polled, 40s agoBest Yes 19.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $521 (5.21x)
Polymarket
Contract
Phumeza Mangcu
Last price
11.3%
Fair, margin removed
9.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19.2¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$521 (5.21x)
Volume
$299
Trade this on Polymarket
Chana Pilane-Majake
5.5%
Polymarket 6.7%(5.4% fair)polled, 40s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chana Pilane-Majake
Last price
6.7%
Fair, margin removed
5.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$107
Trade this on Polymarket
Tlangi Mogale
3.5%
Polymarket 4.3%(3.5% fair)polled, 40s agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tlangi Mogale
Last price
4.3%
Fair, margin removed
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$830
Trade this on Polymarket
Patience Moropa
2.8%
Polymarket 3.5%(2.8% fair)polled, 40s agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Patience Moropa
Last price
3.5%
Fair, margin removed
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$348
Trade this on Polymarket
Kgoši Maepa
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kgoši Maepa
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$159
Trade this on Polymarket
Omphile Maotwe
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Omphile Maotwe
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: elections.org.za

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Cilliers Brink
  • Nasiphi Moya
  • Aaron Maluleka

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Next Mayor of Tshwane (Pretoria)?". Cilliers Brink leads at 40.8%. Next is Nasiphi Moya at 23.3%. $27K has traded across 9 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 5, 2026.

Municipal elections are currently scheduled to be held in South Africa on November 4, 2026. Tshwane’s mayor will be elected by the newly constituted council at its inaugural meeting, which is expected to be held within 14 days of the municipal election, by November 18, 2026. This market will resolve to the first individual who officially assumes the role of Mayor of Tshwane following the 2026 South African municipal elections. A qualifying individual must be elected mayor by the Tshwane City Council. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of South Africa, including the Electoral Commission of South Africa (https://elections.org.za); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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