The Prediction Markets

Next Ministerpräsident of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?

Closed
Sep 21, 2026
Traded
$44K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Sep 21, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Manuela Schwesig
94.9%
Polymarket 96.7%(94.8% fair)polled, 88 h agoBest Yes 98.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Manuela Schwesig
Last price
96.7%
Fair, margin removed
94.8%
As of
Polled 3 d ago
Buy Yes
98.2¢
Sell Yes
95.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$37K
Trade this on Polymarket
Enrico Schult
2.1%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 88 h agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Enrico Schult
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 3 d ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Leif-Erik Holm
1.5%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 88 h agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Leif-Erik Holm
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 3 d ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Daniel Peters
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 88 h agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Daniel Peters
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 3 d ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$954
Trade this on Polymarket
Claudia Müller
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 88 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Claudia Müller
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$786
Trade this on Polymarket
Jakob Schirmer
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 88 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jakob Schirmer
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 d ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$816
Trade this on Polymarket
Simone Oldenburg
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 88 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Simone Oldenburg
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 d ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$566
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Manuela Schwesig
  • Enrico Schult
  • Leif-Erik Holm

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Next Ministerpräsident of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?". Manuela Schwesig last traded at 94.9%. Next is Enrico Schult at 2.1%. $44K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Sep 20, 2026.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Ministerpräsident of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern following the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Ministerpräsident will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Ministerpräsident takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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