The Prediction Markets

Next President of Paraguay?

Closes
Jan 8, 2029, in 26 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
4 min ago
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What the markets expect

Pedro Alliana 64.2%

Next is Miguel Prieto at 13.6%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Pedro Alliana 64.2%Miguel Prieto 13.6%Kattya González 2.7%Alberto Martínez Simón 2.3%Basilio Núñez 2.3%9 others 14.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Pedro Alliana
64.2%
Kalshi 71%(64.3% fair)polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pedro Alliana
Last price
71%
Fair, margin removed
64.3%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Miguel Prieto
13.6%
Kalshi 15%(13.6% fair)polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miguel Prieto
Last price
15%
Fair, margin removed
13.6%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
Kattya González
2.7%
Kalshi 3%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kattya González
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Alberto Martínez Simón
2.3%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alberto Martínez Simón
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Basilio Núñez
2.3%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Basilio Núñez
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Celeste Amarilla
2.3%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Celeste Amarilla
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Juan Carlos Baruja
2.3%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Juan Carlos Baruja
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Lilian Samaniego
2.3%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lilian Samaniego
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Raúl Latorre
2.2%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Raúl Latorre
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Yolanda Paredes
2.2%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yolanda Paredes
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
Arnoldo Wiens
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Arnoldo Wiens
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
Eduardo Nakayama
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Eduardo Nakayama
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
Luis Pettengill
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luis Pettengill
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
Ricardo Estigarribia
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ricardo Estigarribia
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Presidency of the Republic of Paraguay, Honorable Cámara de Diputados del Paraguay, Honorable Cámara de Senadores del Paraguay

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Pedro Alliana
  • Miguel Prieto
  • Kattya González

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Next President of Paraguay?". Pedro Alliana leads at 64.2%. Next is Miguel Prieto at 13.6%. $2K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 8, 2029.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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