The Prediction Markets

Next Prime Minister of Latvia?

Closed
Oct 3, 2026
Traded
$13K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Oct 3, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Andris Kulbergs
96.9%
Polymarket 98.2%(96.9% fair)polled, 65 h agoBest Yes 99.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andris Kulbergs
Last price
98.2%
Fair, margin removed
96.9%
As of
Polled 2 d ago
Buy Yes
99.7¢
Sell Yes
96.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Arvils Ašeradens
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 65 h agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Arvils Ašeradens
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 2 d ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$532
Trade this on Polymarket
Jūlija Stepaņenko
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 65 h agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jūlija Stepaņenko
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 2 d ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$839
Trade this on Polymarket
Viktors Valainis
0.6%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 65 h agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Viktors Valainis
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 2 d ago
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$562
Trade this on Polymarket
Ainārs Šlesers
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 65 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ainārs Šlesers
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 2 d ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Andris Šuvajevs
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 65 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andris Šuvajevs
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 2 d ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$620
Trade this on Polymarket
Ilze Indriksone
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 65 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ilze Indriksone
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$445
Trade this on Polymarket
Svetlana Čulkova
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 65 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Svetlana Čulkova
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$607
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Andris Kulbergs
  • Arvils Ašeradens
  • Jūlija Stepaņenko

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Next Prime Minister of Latvia?". Andris Kulbergs last traded at 96.9%. Next is Arvils Ašeradens at 0.9%. $13K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Oct 3, 2026.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Saeima of Latvia are scheduled to take place on October 3, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who assumes the office of Prime Minister of Latvia following the specified elections. To count for resolution, the Cabinet led by the individual must receive the confidence of the Saeima in a vote of confidence. Any interim, caretaker, or acting Prime Minister, or a Prime Minister whose Cabinet has not received the confidence of the Saeima will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Saeima and the Government of Latvia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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