The Prediction Markets

Next Senate Majority Leader?

Starts in 73 daysKickoff
Traded
$174K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Chuck Schumer 54.9%

Next is John Thune at 22.9%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Chuck Schumer 54.9%John Thune 22.9%Brian Schatz 7.6%Chris Van Hollen 4.6%Tom Cotton 3.8%6 others 6.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Chuck Schumer
54.9%
Polymarket 54%(54.9% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chuck Schumer
Last price
54%
Fair, margin removed
54.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
John Thune
22.9%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Thune
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Polymarket
Brian Schatz
7.6%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brian Schatz
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Chris Van Hollen
4.6%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chris Van Hollen
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tom Cotton
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Cotton
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cory Booker
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cory Booker
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
John Barrasso
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Barrasso
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Steve Daines
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Steve Daines
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
Patty Murray
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Patty Murray
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Amy Klobuchar
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amy Klobuchar
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mark Kelly
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mark Kelly
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Chuck Schumer
  • John Thune
  • Brian Schatz

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Next Senate Majority Leader?". Chuck Schumer leads at 54.9%. Next is John Thune at 22.9%. $174K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the individual who is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, at which point it will resolve based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate. If no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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