The Prediction Markets

Next Senator in Blackburn's Tennessee seat?

Closes
Apr 1, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Tim Burchett 16.4%

Next is Glenn Jacobs at 14.4%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Tim Burchett 16.4%Glenn Jacobs 14.4%Chuck Fleischmann 8.1%Bill Lee 7.7%Cameron Sexton 7.7%9 others 45.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Tim Burchett
16.4%
Polymarket 24.5%(16.4% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tim Burchett
Last price
24.5%
Fair, margin removed
16.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$109
Trade this on Polymarket
Glenn Jacobs
14.4%
Polymarket 21.5%(14.4% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Glenn Jacobs
Last price
21.5%
Fair, margin removed
14.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$81
Trade this on Polymarket
Chuck Fleischmann
8.1%
Polymarket 12%(8.1% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chuck Fleischmann
Last price
12%
Fair, margin removed
8.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$99
Trade this on Polymarket
Bill Lee
7.7%
Polymarket 11.5%(7.7% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bill Lee
Last price
11.5%
Fair, margin removed
7.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$150
Trade this on Polymarket
Cameron Sexton
7.7%
Polymarket 11.5%(7.7% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cameron Sexton
Last price
11.5%
Fair, margin removed
7.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$90
Trade this on Polymarket
John Rose
7.7%
Polymarket 11.5%(7.7% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Rose
Last price
11.5%
Fair, margin removed
7.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$88
Trade this on Polymarket
Diana Harshbarger
7.4%
Polymarket 11%(7.4% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Diana Harshbarger
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
7.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Polymarket
Stuart McWhorter
7%
Polymarket 10.5%(7% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stuart McWhorter
Last price
10.5%
Fair, margin removed
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$111
Trade this on Polymarket
David Kustoff
6%
Polymarket 9%(6% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Kustoff
Last price
9%
Fair, margin removed
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Polymarket
Pete Hegseth
5.4%
Polymarket 8%(5.4% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
5.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$90
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 4 more outcomes
Andy Ogles
3.4%
Polymarket 5%(3.4% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andy Ogles
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Polymarket
Scott DesJarlais
3.4%
Polymarket 5%(3.4% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Scott DesJarlais
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Polymarket
Matt Van Epps
3%
Polymarket 4.5%(3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matt Van Epps
Last price
4.5%
Fair, margin removed
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Polymarket
Damon Hininger
2.4%
Polymarket 3.5%(2.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Damon Hininger
Last price
3.5%
Fair, margin removed
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Tim Burchett
  • Glenn Jacobs
  • Chuck Fleischmann

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Next Senator in Blackburn's Tennessee seat?". Tim Burchett leads at 16.4%. Next is Glenn Jacobs at 14.4%. $1K has traded across 14 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 1, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the next person, other than Marsha Blackburn, to hold the United States Senate seat from Tennessee currently held by Marsha Blackburn (Class I). A person appointed or elected to the seat will be considered to hold it once they have been sworn in. Interim, acting, or other temporary Senators will count. If no person other than Marsha Blackburn has held the seat by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate and the Government of Tennessee; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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