The Prediction Markets

Next Toulouse Mayor after municipal election?

Closed
Mar 22, 2026
Traded
$305K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Mar 22, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 210 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Jean-Luc Moudenc
99.6%
Polymarket 100%polled, 5056 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Jean-Luc Moudenc
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 210 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$254K
Trade this on Polymarket
Arthur Cottrel
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5056 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Arthur Cottrel
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 210 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Trade this on Polymarket
François Briançon
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5056 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Briançon
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 210 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Trade this on Polymarket
François Piquemal
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5056 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Piquemal
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 210 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Polymarket
Guillaume Scali
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5056 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guillaume Scali
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 210 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Julian Menendez
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5056 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Julian Menendez
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 210 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Julien Leonardelli
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5056 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Julien Leonardelli
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 210 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lambert Meilhac
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5056 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lambert Meilhac
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 210 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Malena Adrada
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5056 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Malena Adrada
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 210 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Vanessa Pedinotti
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5056 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vanessa Pedinotti
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 210 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Jean-Luc Moudenc
  • Arthur Cottrel
  • François Briançon

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Next Toulouse Mayor after municipal election?". Jean-Luc Moudenc last traded at 99.6%. Next is Arthur Cottrel at 0.1%. $305K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Mar 22, 2026.

The 2026 Toulouse municipal election is scheduled for March 15, 2026, with a potential runoff on March 22. The Mayor of Toulouse will then be elected by the Toulouse Municipal Council elected in this election. This market will resolve according to the next individual elected to be the Mayor of Toulouse following this election. Interim, temporary, or caretaker mayors will not count. If no such mayor has been elected by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Toulouse; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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