The Prediction Markets

Next US president's age at inauguration?

Closes
Jan 21, 2029, in 27 months
Traded
$6K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
5 min ago
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What the markets expect

50+ 39%

Next is 60+ at 16.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
50+
39%
Polymarket 39%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
50+
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
60+
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
60+
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$632
Trade this on Polymarket
70+
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
70+
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$56
Trade this on Polymarket
80+
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
80+
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$567
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 50+
  • 60+
  • 70+

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Next US president's age at inauguration?". 50+ leads at 39%. Next is 60+ at 16.5%. $6K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 21, 2029.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next individual to be sworn in as President of the United States after Donald J. Trump is the listed age or older on the day on which they are sworn in. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The individual's age will be calculated on the day on which they are sworn in. A person will be considered to have advanced from one age to the next immediately upon the beginning of the calendar day of their day of birth. In the event that no individual other than Donald J. Trump has been sworn in as President of the United States by March 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official government sources and official public records; however, a consensus of credible sources may suffice.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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Next US president's age at inauguration? Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Markets