The Prediction Markets

Next Venezuelan Presidential Election Winner

Closes
Jan 1, 2030, in 38 months
Traded
$46K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
3 h ago
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What the markets expect

María Corina Machado 63.1%

Next is Delcy Rodríguez at 12.4%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

María Corina Machado 63.1%Delcy Rodríguez 12.4%Jorge Rodríguez 7.2%Donald Trump 3.4%Marco Rubio 3.2%5 others 10.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
María Corina Machado
63.1%
Polymarket 53.5%(63.1% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
María Corina Machado
Last price
53.5%
Fair, margin removed
63.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Delcy Rodríguez
12.4%
Polymarket 10.5%(12.4% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Delcy Rodríguez
Last price
10.5%
Fair, margin removed
12.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jorge Rodríguez
7.2%
Polymarket 6.1%(7.2% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jorge Rodríguez
Last price
6.1%
Fair, margin removed
7.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Donald Trump
3.4%
Polymarket 2.9%(3.4% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump
Last price
2.9%
Fair, margin removed
3.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Marco Rubio
3.2%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$592
Trade this on Polymarket
Henrique Capriles
3.1%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Henrique Capriles
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$415
Trade this on Polymarket
Manuel Rosales
3.1%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Manuel Rosales
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$281
Trade this on Polymarket
Diosdado Cabello
1.8%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Diosdado Cabello
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Edmundo González
1.5%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Edmundo González
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nicolás Maduro
1.2%
Polymarket 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nicolás Maduro
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$773
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • María Corina Machado
  • Delcy Rodríguez
  • Jorge Rodríguez

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Next Venezuelan Presidential Election Winner". María Corina Machado leads at 63.1%. Next is Delcy Rodríguez at 12.4%. $46K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2030.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Venezuelan presidential election to take place by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET. Any appointment or selection of a president not made through a popular election does not qualify as a presidential election. If no Venezuelan presidential election takes place by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. If a Venezuelan presidential election takes place, but no winner is officially declared by 11:59 PM ET on the 365th calendar day following the date of the election, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the winner of the election as officially declared by the National Electoral Council of Venezuela, or a successor Venezuelan electoral authority.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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