The Prediction Markets

Niagara-on-the-Lake, ON Mayoral Election Winner

Closes
Oct 27, 2026, in 4 days
Traded
$23K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Erwin Wiens 62.6%

Next is Andrea Kaiser at 30.6%. The venues differ most on Erwin Wiens (Polymarket 63.5%, Kalshi 59%), a 4.5-point gap.

Erwin Wiens 62.6%Andrea Kaiser 30.6%Vaughn Goettler 6.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Erwin Wiens
62.6%
Polymarket 63.5%(63% fair)polled, 59s agoKalshi 59%(62.1% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erwin Wiens
Last price
63.5%
Fair, margin removed
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Erwin Wiens
Last price
59%
Fair, margin removed
62.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$276
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 59¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 61¢.

Andrea Kaiser
30.6%
Polymarket 31%polled, 59s agoKalshi 29%(30.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrea Kaiser
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Andrea Kaiser
Last price
29%
Fair, margin removed
30.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 28¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 36¢.

Vaughn Goettler
6.8%
Polymarket 6.4%polled, 59s agoKalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vaughn Goettler
Last price
6.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.6¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,042 (10.4x)
Volume
$248
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Vaughn Goettler
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9.6¢.

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 27, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Town of Niagara-on-the-Lake Clerk
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Oct 27, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Erwin Wiens
  • Andrea Kaiser
  • Vaughn Goettler

Live prices for Erwin Wiens

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Cover all 3 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Niagara-on-the-Lake, ON Mayoral Election Winner". Erwin Wiens leads at 62.6%. Next is Andrea Kaiser at 30.6%. $23K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2026.

The 2026 Niagara-on-the-Lake, Ontario mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Niagara-on-the-Lake, Ontario as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Niagara-on-the-Lake, Ontario.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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