The Prediction Markets

Nicotine product point of sale spend array index in November 2026

Closes
Dec 3, 2026, in 28 days
Traded
$39K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
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What the markets expect

Above 110 98.5%

Next is Above 115 at 97%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 110
98.5%
Kalshi 98.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 110
Last price
98.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 115
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 115
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 120
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 120
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 125
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 125
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 130
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 130
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 135
59.5%
Kalshi 59.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 135
Last price
59.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 140
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 140
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 145
12.5%
Kalshi 12.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 145
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 150
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 150
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 155
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 155
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 160
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 160
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Carbon Arc

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 110
  • Above 115
  • Above 120

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Nicotine product point of sale spend array index in November 2026". Above 110 leads at 98.5%. Next is Above 115 at 97%. $39K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 3, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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