The Prediction Markets

North Carolina Republican Senate nominee? (2028)

Closes
Nov 7, 2028, in 24 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Ted Budd 84.2%

Next is Mark Walker at 3.2%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Ted Budd 84.2%Mark Walker 3.2%Richard Hudson 3.2%Michael Whatley 2.7%Dan Bishop 2.4%2 others 4.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Ted Budd
84.2%
Kalshi 84%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ted Budd
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mark Walker
3.2%
Kalshi 3.2%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Walker
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Richard Hudson
3.2%
Kalshi 3.2%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Richard Hudson
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Michael Whatley
2.7%
Kalshi 2.7%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Whatley
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dan Bishop
2.4%
Kalshi 2.4%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Bishop
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tim Moore
2.2%
Kalshi 2.3%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tim Moore
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Lara Trump
2.1%
Kalshi 2.2%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lara Trump
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: North Carolina Republican Party, Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ted Budd
  • Mark Walker
  • Richard Hudson

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "North Carolina Republican Senate nominee? (2028)". Ted Budd leads at 84.2%. Next is Mark Walker at 3.2%. $2K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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North Carolina Republican Senate nominee? (2028) Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Markets