The Prediction Markets

North Carolina Senate Election: Turnout

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$28K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 3.40M 95%

Next is Above 3.60M at 92%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 3.40M
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.40M
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.60M
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.60M
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.80M
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.80M
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.90M
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.90M
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.10M
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.10M
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$467
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.30M
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.30M
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$975
Trade this on Kalshi
4.3M-4.5M
26%
Polymarket 26%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.3M-4.5M
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.7M-3.9M
23.2%
Polymarket 23.2%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 25.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $391 (3.91x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.7M-3.9M
Last price
23.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25.6¢
Sell Yes
20.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$391 (3.91x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 4.50M
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.50M
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$963
Trade this on Kalshi
3.9M-4.1M
15.8%
Polymarket 15.8%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 17.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $562 (5.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.9M-4.1M
Last price
15.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17.8¢
Sell Yes
13.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$562 (5.62x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
4.1M-4.3M
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.1M-4.3M
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.7M+
12.2%
Polymarket 12.2%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 14.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $680 (6.80x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.7M+
Last price
12.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.7¢
Sell Yes
9.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$680 (6.80x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 4.70M
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.70M
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$588
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.90M
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.90M
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$161
Trade this on Kalshi
4.5M-4.7M
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 8.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,163 (11.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.5M-4.7M
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.6¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,163 (11.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.5M-3.7M
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.5M-3.7M
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.5M
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.5M
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: North Carolina State Board of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 3.40M
  • Above 3.60M
  • Above 3.80M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 3.40M for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "North Carolina Senate Election: Turnout". Above 3.40M leads at 95%. Next is Above 3.60M at 92%. $28K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from North Carolina. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from North Carolina, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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