The Prediction Markets

North Carolina Senate: margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$254K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Cooper, 1+ pts 96.3%

Next is Cooper, 2+ pts at 95.6%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

4 of 44 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Cooper, 1+ pts
96.3%
Kalshi 96.3%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 1+ pts
Last price
96.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 2+ pts
95.6%
Kalshi 95.6%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 2+ pts
Last price
95.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
94.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 3+ pts
94.1%
Kalshi 94.1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 94.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 3+ pts
Last price
94.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94.1¢
Sell Yes
92.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 4+ pts
92.5%
Kalshi 92.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 93.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 4+ pts
Last price
92.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93.9¢
Sell Yes
91.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 5+ pts
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 92.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 5+ pts
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92.5¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 6+ pts
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 6+ pts
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 7+ pts
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 7+ pts
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 8+ pts
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 8+ pts
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 9+ pts
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 9+ pts
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 10+ pts
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 10+ pts
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 34 more outcomes
Cooper, 11+ pts
68%
Kalshi 68%live, just nowBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 11+ pts
Price
68%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 12+ pts
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 12+ pts
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$13
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 13+ pts
49%
Kalshi 49%live, just nowBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 13+ pts
Price
49%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 14+ pts
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 14+ pts
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 15+ pts
33%
Kalshi 33%live, just nowBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 15+ pts
Price
33%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper 12-15%
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $342 (3.42x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cooper 12-15%
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29.2¢
Sell Yes
26.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$342 (3.42x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cooper 18%+
26.1%
Polymarket 26.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $375 (3.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cooper 18%+
Last price
26.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26.7¢
Sell Yes
25.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$375 (3.75x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cooper 9-12%
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cooper 9-12%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cooper, 17+ pts
21%
Kalshi 21%live, just nowBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 17+ pts
Price
21%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper 15-18%
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cooper 15-18%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cooper, 19+ pts
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 19+ pts
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Roy Cooper, 8-10%
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Roy Cooper, 8-10%
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$232
Trade this on Kalshi
Roy Cooper, 6-8%
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Roy Cooper, 6-8%
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$232
Trade this on Kalshi
Roy Cooper, 12-14%
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Roy Cooper, 12-14%
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$232
Trade this on Kalshi
Roy Cooper, 10-12%
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Roy Cooper, 10-12%
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$232
Trade this on Kalshi
Roy Cooper, 14-16%
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Roy Cooper, 14-16%
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$232
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 21+ pts
9.3%
Kalshi 9.3%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 21+ pts
Last price
9.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper 6-9%
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cooper 6-9%
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Roy Cooper, 16-18%
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Roy Cooper, 16-18%
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$232
Trade this on Kalshi
Roy Cooper, 18-20%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Roy Cooper, 18-20%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$282
Trade this on Kalshi
Roy Cooper, ≥22%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Roy Cooper, ≥22%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$232
Trade this on Kalshi
Roy Cooper, 2-4%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Roy Cooper, 2-4%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$232
Trade this on Kalshi
Roy Cooper, 4-6%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Roy Cooper, 4-6%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$232
Trade this on Kalshi
Roy Cooper, 20-22%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Roy Cooper, 20-22%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$348
Trade this on Kalshi
Whatley, 1+ pts
3.9%
Kalshi 3.9%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Whatley, 1+ pts
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Whatley, 3+ pts
3.9%
Kalshi 3.9%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Whatley, 3+ pts
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Roy Cooper, 0-2%
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Roy Cooper, 0-2%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$232
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper 3-6%
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cooper 3-6%
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Michael Whatley, ≥2%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Whatley, ≥2%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$216
Trade this on Kalshi
Michael Whatley, 0-2%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Whatley, 0-2%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$116
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper 0-3%
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cooper 0-3%
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Whatley 3-6%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Whatley 3-6%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Whatley 0-3%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Whatley 0-3%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Whatley 6%+
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Whatley 6%+
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: North Carolina State Board of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Cooper, 1+ pts
  • Cooper, 2+ pts
  • Cooper, 3+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Cooper, 1+ pts for this event.

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "North Carolina Senate: margin of victory". Cooper, 1+ pts leads at 96.3%. Next is Cooper, 2+ pts at 95.6%. $254K has traded across 44 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

See all politics markets